Why Has Adrian Amos Regressed this Season?

After the Packers’ loss to the Eagles on Sunday, long-time Blue 58 listener Alex in Alexandria, Virginia recently popped in with an interesting question:

I had a question about Adrian Amos. He took what appeared to be several bad lines last night that led to badly mis tackles as a player who has done so much over his career by being in the right place at the right time.

Do you have any theories on what may be wrong? Is this simply a case of Amos trying to cover other players' responsibilities with Savage out of the lineup and newer players like Ford finding their way or some other problem? 

Alex raises something important here and it's symptomatic of the 2022 season. There are so many bad things going on with the Packers that sometimes we don't get a chance to address them all. For instance, we went a long time without really talking about how disappointing of a season Darnell Savage has been having, and when we finally got to it, it was only because he was losing playing time to Rudy Ford or moving into a different position. 

Adrian Amos has kind of been flying under the radar a little bit and he's been having a pretty bad season, especially by his standards. 

How bad has it been? Here are a few numbers. 

H's giving up the worst completion percentage when targeted with a pass since his rookie season. According to Pro Football Focus, he's having the worst-graded season of his career in every category except rushing the passer. PFF also says he’s missing 9.7% of his tackle attempts this year, tying 2020 as the worst tackling season he's had in Green Bay. 

And as Alex points out, he's taken bad angles at times this year. Slice it any way you like. It's been bad, and it's weird to see because he's normally been so rock steady. So why is it happening? 

Age-related decline and additional responsibilities are significant issues

First, to Alex's point, there is some concern about age-related decline. He is 29 years old and he is turning 30 in April. That's not ancient but consider the circumstances here.

He's played 121 games in his NFL career. He's played more than a thousand snaps in four straight seasons. If he is declining for age-related reasons, it would be totally understandable. He's been on the football field a lot, and that takes a toll eventually. 

Second, I think there's an issue with the talent surrounding him, and Alex gets to this a little bit as well.

He probably does have to take more responsibility this year than before. Given how bad Darnell Savage has been, the Packers are probably turning to him a little bit more and leaning on him a little bit more heavily. 

The Packers are using Adrian Amos differently than in the past

But finally, It's worth pointing out that Adrian Amos has been used a little bit differently this year than in the past.

He's actually playing less free safety this season and more in the box than he ever has in his Packers tenure, and I don't really know why that is. It doesn't really overlap all that much with Darnell Savage, whose usage has also changed dramatically. But Amos is lining up in different spots than we’ve seen him before, and that could be a part of his decline.

I think it’s also significant that other people have taken a step back when they’ve been used a little bit differently under Joe Barry. Dean Lowry has regressed. Darnell Savage played much better under Mike Pettine. We have weekly conversations about how Jaire Alexander is used. It wouldn’t be surprising to learn that Amos is just another player who’s being put in unusual spots by a defensive coordinator that doesn’t seem to have a good grasp on the players he has available. 

What does this mean for Adrian Amos’ future with the Packers?

Overall, it’s just been a bad year for Amos, and it seems like it’s a little bit of everything. The decline does seem unusually precipitous; there haven't really been symptoms of regression prior to this, at least nothing that I've seen. Maybe there's reason to hope that he could either turn it around yet this year or in the future.

The problem is, I don't think his future is going to be in Green Bay. His contract hits the void-year stage after this season, and I think the Packers are probably going to be looking to move on. He’ll probably stand to get one last decent free agent deal somewhere to just be a studying influence in someone’s secondary. And more power to him; players should get money while they can, and I think Amos still has good football ahead of him. It just probably won’t be for the Packers.

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