What Stats Make Sense for Jordan Love in 2023?
I don’t think we should spend a whole lot of time wringing our hands over the kind of stats Jordan Love puts up in 2023. That’s not to say I think his stats will be bad; if I had to put a word on it, I’d land somewhere around “fine,” probably. But I think the evaluation of his performance should be more about subjective things than counting stats.
But if we had to put some numbers to where he’ll end up, I think we can look at a few different statistical performances for guidance. The best comparisons might be the 2008 and 2022 versions of Aaron Rodgers, the player against whom Love will most often be measured.
2008 Aaron Rodgers
The first and most obvious comparison will be how Love stacks up against Aaron Rodgers’ first season as an NFL starter. That year, Rodgers completed 63.6% of his passes for 4,038 yards (237 per game in a 17-game season) and threw 28 touchdowns against 13 interceptions. As far as counting stats go, those seem pretty achievable, with the possible exception of 28 touchdowns. But if Love lands in the ballpark of most of these stats, I think we’ll probably feel pretty good about his performance.
However, we should also point out that in terms of efficiency stats, Rodgers was much better in 2008 than most people remember. Rodgers ranked sixth in the NFL that year in passer rating, 10th in Adjusted Net Yards per Attempt, 11th in QBR and DVOA, and 14th in DYAR. If Love can be at least that good in those metrics, the Packers might really have something.
2022 Aaron Rodgers
Last year’s version of Rodgers is another obvious comparison. In his final season with the Packers, Rodgers managed just 3,695 yards — just 217 per game. There’s the caveat that Rodgers was playing with a broken thumb, but he still completed 64.6% of his passes, which is good if not great. He also threw 26 touchdowns against 12 interceptions. It feels like Love should have plenty of opportunities to throw the ball this year, especially if the Packers are trailing more often than they were for most of the Rodgers era. He should be able to beat Rodgers’ yardage number fairly easily.
What kind of stats will Love produce in 2023?
It’s anybody’s guess how Love’s season will actually shape up statistically, but if I had to guess (and I have several times on Blue 58), I’d say his season will look something like this statistically:
Between 3,600 and 4,100 passing yards
Between 20 and 26 touchdown passes
At least 12 interceptions
Between 62% and 65% completion percentage
I’d also predict that he’ll do something that Rodgers didn’t do at all last year: Love will throw for 300 yards in at least three games.