Revisiting the Rashan Gary's Productivity
Rashan Gary has been one of the most interesting Packers players to study over the past few years. In many ways, he’s a perfect case study on the limitations of traditional box score stats, how they intersect with advanced numbers, and the value of traits relative to production.
I find myself returning to this piece I wrote on Gary in 2019 quite frequently, and now that he’s completed three years in the NFL, I think it’s time to revisit it. Did the Packers get it right when they took Gary? Were the concerns of the time valid?
What were the concerns about Gary in 2019?
First, let’s try to recall the player Gary was at Michigan. Though he’s been almost exclusively a stand-up edge rusher in Green Bay, at Michigan, Gary played much more like you’d expect a 4-3 end to play: he put his hand on the ground to rush the passer and frequently was responsible for setting a strong edge in the run game.
As a result, Gary didn’t put up big pass-rush numbers, as evidenced by his low counting stats and production ratio score.
(A quick aside: we use production ratio to put a quick, simple number on an edge rusher or defensive lineman’s overall production. Developed by NFL analyst Pat Kirwan, production ratio is the sum of a player’s sacks and tackles for loss divided by the number of games in which he played. A good player typically has a production ratio over 1.0. You can read more about that number and how we use it here.)
Of the edge rushers and defensive linemen taken in the first round of the 2019 NFL Draft, Gary had the second-fewest sacks, was tied for the third-fewest tackles for loss, and managed a production ratio of just 0.96, below the 1.0 threshold we look for. Production-wise, there seemed to be some reason for concern.
Looking to some advanced numbers, there were also some question marks. According to Pro Football Focus, Gary managed to post a pressure (a sack, hurry, or hit) on just 13.8% of his college rushes, good for 32nd best among draft-eligible pass rushers in 2019.
Why did the Packers draft Rashan Gary?
That’s not to say there weren’t reasons to be interested in Gary as a prospect. He wasn’t just some bum; although his counting stats weren’t terrific, he was twice named to the All-Big 10 team and posted some truly eye-popping numbers at the 2019 NFL Combine.
Gary was also an elite run defender, something I mentioned in the 2019 piece. In an interview with NFL.com, he said he prided himself on being one of Michigan’s key pieces in their run defense.
“Causing havoc [isn't on the stat sheet]” he said. “In college, teams were scared to run my way, so if I eliminated a team from running to the right side, you know it's coming to the left. So it's just my presence and the tenacity I bring every play.”
Packers general manager Brian Gutekunst said something to similar effect when he explained his thought process on picking the former Michigan Wolverine: “Production is just the way you look at it. He affected the passer, he affected the game. At times he wrecked it.”
But that’s still a hard sell for people (like me) who had hoped for a player who was both athletic and productive. For instance, fellow edge rushers Brian Burns and Montez Sweat both posted elite testing numbers at the 2019 NFL Combine and had incredible production in college, both by traditional numbers and advanced stats. Even if they believed in Gary’s traits over his production, the Packers were clearly taking a bit of a risk, gambling that the guy who hadn’t produced yet would turn things around in the NFL.
So how has that worked out?
Gary’s production stacks up well — in some areas.
Rashan Gary’s production has come a long way since college, but your mileage may vary on the conclusion.
Here is the same group of pass rushers from earlier with their stats updated to reflect their work in the NFL so far.
First, the bad news. In some ways, the production ratio projection has turned out to be true. Gary’s college production ratio of 0.96 foreshadowed some problems from traditional stats in the NFL; his professional production ratio has been just 0.69 through three NFL seasons, putting him squarely in the middle of the pack among the edge rushers and linemen taken in 2019. Despite 9.5 sacks in 2019, Gary’s counting stats just haven’t been there overall, and there’s really no other way to slice it. He hasn’t made a big impact from the traditional counting stats of sacks and tackles for loss.
But that’s only part of the picture. Advanced stats give Gary more credit — a lot more. According to Pro Football Focus, Gary has generated 149 total pressures on 982 career pass-rush snaps (counting regular season and playoff games). That’s second-best among the first round edges and defensive linemen, and his corresponding pressure rate of 15.17% is also second-best in that group.
In simpler terms, Gary’s affecting the passer in ways that don’t show up on the stat sheet. Not the traditional one, at least.
Some of that could be tied to Gary’s role on the Packers' defense. In 2019 and 2020, Gary was firmly behind Za’Darius Smith and Preston Smith on the edge rusher depth chart. Though he played regularly, he was still third in the pecking order for snaps. He was on the field for just 244 snaps (23.46%) as a rookie in 2019 and another 456 (44.4%) in 2020. For comparison, neither of the Smiths played fewer than 79% of the defensive snaps in 2019 or 2020. It’s hard to amass counting stats when you’re not on the field, and Gary simply wasn’t out there much in each of his first two seasons.
Did the Packers make the right call?
In retrospect, then, I think the Packers did make the right call in taking Gary with the 12th pick in 2019. His college production numbers were concerning, but not without explanation, and the same is true of his lack of traditional production early in his NFL career. The 2021 season showed us that when he got a bigger opportunity, the traditional stats followed. Outside the box score, Gary’s exceptional athletic gifts have allowed him to cover for his still-unrefined pass-rushing repertoire, and he’s using them to get consistent pressure on opposing quarterbacks.
The Packers’ pass rush group will look different in 2022. It’s possible that both Za’Darius and Preston Smith could be on other teams next season. Now that Gary has proven he can be a consistent pass rusher in the NFL, his next challenge is to show he can do it while attracting the bulk of an opposing offense’s attention. Given what he’s shown through three seasons, it’s hard to bet against him.