Making Predictions for the 2023 Green Bay Packers
Expectations are a funny kind of thing. For instance, I originally expected that this piece was going to be a podcast and that it would come out on Wednesday. But then my house became some kind of pestilential breeding ground for sickness courtesy of the walking disease vectors I am legally obligated to care for, and now it’s Friday, and we’ve got to make some predictions for how this Packers season is going to go at the team level before, well, the season starts.
We’ve maintained through most of the offseason and training camp that setting hard and fast expectations for this Packers team is difficult since most of the goal for this season seems to be about getting a feel for how the team’s many new pieces fit together. In short, it’s about vibes more than about actual success.
That’s not to say you can’t have some real expectations for this team. I think it’s totally possible that the team could surprise some people, make a run, and win the NFC North — possibly even going away. I mean, Detroit seems to be everyone’s favorite to win the division, but how much confidence can anyone really have in a team with a franchise-wide gambling problem that also happens to be helmed by Jared Goff?
But overall, tempering expectations seems wise. The old adage of expecting the worst while hoping for the best seems as good of a summary of how things look for the 2023 Packers as anything else I’ve heard.
For specific predictions, let’s start with the offense:
The Packers will average between 20 and 22.5 points per game on offense this year. In 2022, the offense averaged about 21.75 points per game, so I envision this year’s output to be about the same.
The Packers’ offensive DVOA will be no lower than 15th but no higher than 9th. Last year’s team was 12th in offensive DVOA.
The Packers will score at least 30 points in a game at least twice.
The Packers will score under 20 points at least three times.
The Packers team yards per carry will increase from last year’s total of 4.6 yards per carry for the season.
Generally, I think the offense will be about the same as last year. It’s going to be rocky at times, but I think there’s enough talent and explosive ability that things will also break loose from time to time, too. I think given the speed the Packers can put on the field, there will be times when things really blow up.
Here are a few predictions for defense:
The Packers will rank between 12th and 17th in points allowed in 2023; last year’s team ranked 17th, giving up 21.8 points per game.
The Packers’ defensive DVOA will improve this year, ranking at least 20th, due in part to an improvement in their run defense.
The Packers will rank between 10th and 14th in takeaways; last year’s team ranked 12th.
The Packers will give up at least 30 points in a game just once.
The defense may not be a world-beater, but I think there’s reason to believe it will be a little better than last year. A full season of Rashan Gary, more consistency from De’Vondre Campbell and Quay Walker, and more aggression from Jaire Alexander and Rasul Douglas will power the defense to a slightly better 2023.
Now, as far as team success, here’s what I predict:
The Packers have a wide range for possible wins in 2023; I predict they will win no fewer than 6 but no more than 11 games.
The Packers will not win the NFC North.
The Packers will make the playoffs.
Though it’s possible they could win the NFC North, I don’t feel comfortable predicting that. The division is wide open, but I don’t feel like the Packers are far enough along in their team lifecycle to make that a realistic prediction for this year; they need a little bit of time yet. That said, I do think they can and will make the playoffs as a wildcard team. Last year’s NFC field sent three teams to the playoffs with nine or fewer wins, and I don’t see any reason to think the conference will be any stronger this year. If the Packers can consistently grow over the course of the season, we should see them in the playoffs with Jordan Love.