Lukas Van Ness is Raw and That's Fine
Lukas Van Ness has been less of a storyline and more of a subplot through training camp so far.
Outside of a few mentions in daily reporting and a couple of plays during Friday’s first preseason game, he’s been basically a ghost. This, in turn, has led to a bit of handwringing about how the Packers’ top draft pick in 2023 is shaping up.
In fairness to those worried, yes, it’s not ideal that the 13th overall pick has been essentially a non-factor to this point. However, I think there’s an easy counter to these worries, and it’s one that should forestall “bust” concerns about Van Ness for a little while.
The simple fact here is that Lukas Van Ness is raw. He was raw when he was drafted, and he’s still raw now. He is very much more prospect than product at this point, and he’s going to need time to develop into the player the Packers hope he can be.
How raw is he? About as raw as you can get.
When we did our draft preview series this spring, there were 46 edge rusher prospects in our pool of players. Of those 46, Van Ness was one of only nine with fewer than 500 pass rush snaps. For comparison, there were eight players who had at least 900 pass rushing snaps on their career resume. He appeared in only 26 career games at Iowa, seventh-fewest among the 46 players we considered. He simply did not play very much in college, and when he did play, it wasn’t at his current position as often as not.
But this was not a mystery to those who analyze potential draft picks. Here’s a selection of lines from our scouting report complication on Van Ness. Everyone was well aware that he is a very raw prospect:
His youth is evident, as he often mistimes his hands or rush moves
One-move rusher
Needs more work schooling up hands as a rusher
As a pass rusher, Van Ness is largely power-dominant at the moment and lacks a vast, refined arsenal outside of that
Has limited experience - has played just two years of college football
Limited experience and hasn't proven to be an every-down player who can handle a full-game workload
Now, more to the point, Van Ness has had very little time to become a refined player. In the roughly four months that he’s been a professional football player, Van Ness has attended rookie minicamp, a couple of rounds of OTAs, the full-team minicamp, and a couple of weeks of training camp. Even if that sounds like a lot (and it shouldn’t), there are very few opportunities in those practices for him to really work on the skills that will take him from unrefined prospect to technically skilled player. Practices barely allow for contact, and even in full-contact drills, there are precious few chances to really work on his skills.
In short, there is very little reason for Van Ness to not still be basically the same player now as he was when the Packers drafted him.
He’s going to need time. And, to be entirely fair, there’s still a chance that he ends up as a bust some day. But he’s going to need a chance to actually develop first, and we owe him at least that much.