The Packers’ initial roster (and a couple of cuts since then) have made one thing clear: Brian Gutekunst likes his 2022 draft class. He kept all 11 of the players he selected this spring during final roster cuts despite fierce competition at a couple of spots, leading to some speculation that Gutekunst may be favoring his picks over non-drafted players.

Is that legit? It’s possible, but I’m skeptical for a few reasons.

Context matters, especially for the 2022 class

First, we have to properly contextualize the players Gutekunst kept. “Packers keep all 11 draft picks in roster competition” is technically true as a headline, but when you look at the makeup of the class, it’s really not that big of a surprise.

Six of the 11 players Gutekunst kept — Quay Walker, Devonte Wyatt, Christian Watson, Sean Rhyan, Zach Tom, and Romeo Doubs — were taken in the fourth round or earlier, and JJ Enagbare came off the board in round five. It’s not like Gutekunst was stuffing his roster with day three picks just because he drafted him.

Gutekunst did keep all four of his seventh-round picks, but of those four, I think you can really only say one was a big surprise. That would be Jonathan Ford, who beat out Chris Slayton and Jack Heflin for the Packers’ final defensive line spot. It’s still not clear exactly what Ford’s role is, but he’s big and played at a fairly well-regarded college program, so there’s some pedigree there.

But beyond that, the other three seventh-round picks had clear paths to the roster. Tariq Carpenter made the 53 practically by default, holding on as one of the only healthy safeties in the city of Green Bay by the end of camp. 

Samori Toure, meanwhile, has better physical traits than Juwann Winfree and has more upside as a special teams player. Both of those factors matter, so he gets the spot.

For his part, Rasheed Walker played well in the Packers’ preseason finale and happens to play the most important position on the offensive line. With David Bakhtiari and Elgton Jenkins uncertain for Week 1, Royce Newman uncertain in general, and Cole Van Lanen out of town via trade, Walker ended up on the roster merely by beating out Caleb Jones, a comparable player to Walker, but someone who 32 teams agreed wasn’t good enough to draft. If you told somebody in May as opposed to August that Walker had beaten out Jones for a job, nobody would have blinked. Even though Walker only played one preseason game, he was ahead of Jones to begin with because he has a better track record as a player.

What about previous years? I’m glad you asked.

Seven of nine players from Gutekunst’s 2021 class are on the roster; only Van Lanen (traded) and Kylin Hill (Physically Unable to Perform list) didn’t make the 53. But of those seven, virtually all of them seem to have earned their spot outright. Eric Stokes and Josh Myers are starters, while TJ Slaton, Shemar Jean-Charles, and Isaiah McDuffie all occupy key backup roles. 

Even less popular players have good arguments for roster spots. Royce Newman has tackle and guard versatility and never faced real competition in camp, while Amari Rodgers is a favorite of the coaching staff for versatility of his own. Even if you dislike Rodgers (I’m not a huge fan), it’s hard to really say he and a guy like Juwann Winfree were competing for a roster spot given how different their expected responsibilities are.

Gutekunst’s draft picks from 2020 are much the same as 2021: they’re either starters (or quasi-starters) like AJ Dillon and Jon Runyan or key backups like Jordan Love, Josiah Deguara, and Jake Hanson (the only player other than Josh Myers and Elgton Jenkins with NFL-level experience at center). Jonathan Garvin did make the 53, but he only had to beat out Kobe Jones and La’Darius Hamilton, hardly a dynamic duo on the edge.

We’re talking about deep backups, at best

But that brings me to my second point: the players “beaten out” for roster spots are hardly considered the cream of the crop at their respective positions — and all are going to get more shots in Green Bay, anyway.

Slayton and Heflin didn’t get past Ford, but neither was claimed on waivers and both are now back on the Packers’ practice squad. If Ford falters or the Packers simply want a different look than he can provide (a good bet, given his skill set), who’s going to get the first crack at his job? Slayton or Heflin.

The same goes for Caleb Jones. He has desirable physical attributes, but the same thing that stopped him from getting drafted (a lack of polish in college and similar criticisms) led to him going unclaimed on waivers. He, too, is back in Green Bay and will get a chance to develop on the practice squad.

Winfree? Same story. Nobody else wanted him, so the Packers got him back. Kobe Jones and La’Darius Hamilton have the same story to tell.

We’re talking about extremely low-level roster competition. Every team in the league had a chance to put the players beaten out for jobs in Green Bay on their roster but declined. That means either the Packers have no talent worth competing for or that the guys who lost their training camp fights might just not be that good.

I can understand how we got here; it’s easy to get attached to players during training camp when we can’t even see most of what happens. Guys sound like world beaters in practice when our only perspective is tweets from beat reporters and a few nuggets in daily practice round ups. But the true story is revealed in the waiver wire: most of these guys aren’t considered contenders on any NFL roster right now, but they’ll get a chance to continue their competition in Green Bay.